there is no way within Intune to check if a device is able to upgrade to a new version. That is one of your own actions.
But if you know which model is able to upgrade you can assign the upgrade policy to a dynamic group.
you can use e.g. the following syntax: (device.deviceModel -eq "iPhone 12")
Rules for dynamically populated groups membership - Azure AD | Microsoft Docs
I hope this will help you.