I have a challenging excel problem
Hi guys, Have got quite a challenging problem. I'm trying to build a model that produces the probability of horses winning a race. There are 4 "speedmaps" (i.e. scenarios of how the race might play out) and each scenario has a percentage of how likely it is to happen. There are 3 horses in the race. So, Speedmap 1 (happens 40% of the time) Horse A wins 70% Horse B wins 25% Horse C wins 5% Speedmap 2 (happens 30% of the time) Horse A wins 30% Horse B wins 50% Horse C wins 20% Speedmap 3 (happens 20% of the time) Horse A wins 10% Horse B wins 20% Horse C wins 70% Speedmap 4 (happens 10% of the time) Horse A wins 80% Horse B wins 10% Horse C wins 10% I manually worked out that for this race, the probability of each horse winning is: A = 47%, B=30%, C=23% How do I build a model in excel where I can input any values in and the probability of the horses winning is spat out? Would appreciate any help/discussion!! Thanks!