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Hi jsand42 I understand your frustration. Licensing is a nightmare at times.

If you have a Software Assurance you might want to step up to Office 2022 instead, that has lower requirements and should fit with your on-premises usecase.

Unfortunately Microsoft is very silent about the supported OS list until today, even though it is pretty much ante portas and many need to have more outlook for budget and strategy decision.

I am personally sure it will be supported on Windows 10 21H2 LTSC (and eventually SAC) as they reduced the LTSC support to 5 years which matches Office LTSC, here 2022.

I would not bet on support of Windows Server 2016/2019/2022 LTSC anymore based on last developments.