@Isaac
I could be wrong but it looks like you already have a mbx user on your target account instead of just an MEU (basically the address is defined as an external address and the user should NOT have a mailbox already).
@PowersthatBe
Is there anyway to override the conversion of the source MBX to an MEU? I ask this because I'd rather approach migrations in a manner similar to BPOS as it's much easier to share namespaces that way (set the target site as non-authoritative until moves are done). In this way I could run a 2nd powershell script to add the contact to forward to but of course I need to leave a mailbox in the old site for this to function correctly and it's a bit of a pain to "undo" the move-request so this can happen.