Hi Eric,
A password change is what happens when a user changes their password, eg they use their current password to log into Windows, but are then prompted to choose a new password.
A password set (or reset) is what happens when someone (usually a higher-privileged account, eg a Domain Admin) decides to arbitrarily replace the password on an account with a new password, ie using Powershell or the Active Directory Users and Computers mgmt snapin. Usually the person doing this does not have knowledge of the old password. You will also see "password set" events when a brand new user account is being created for the first time.
I hope this clarifies the difference, let me know if it does not. And I will add these descriptions to the docs, probably from the Azure AD Password Protection faq topic:
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/active-directory/authentication/howto-password-ban-bad-on-premises-faq
thanks!
Jay