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Predicting future covid deaths

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New Contributor

I have started a spreadsheet to try to predict covid-19 deaths into the near future, based on the current total number of U.S. deaths from the virus each day as reported on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Column A is labelled Date. Each day I enter the number of deaths into an Excel column labeled Total Deaths (Column B). 

 

I plotted the resulting data into a line chart with Date as X-axis and Total Deaths as Y-axis (log scale). Excel file is attached.  I set the  trendline as Polynomial Order 6. The plotted data and trendline match almost exactly. However, the Equation for the trendline is nonsense. I'd like to know what function, if any, I can use to mathematically predict the future growth in total deaths based solely on the past data points.  Any suggestions?

2 Replies
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@DaChaw1921 This kind of modelling is best done by proper epidemiologists with detailed models, and not speculated on with rough models in Excel.  It's not a responsible use of data and I don't think it's helpful to do it.

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Best Response confirmed by DaChaw1921 (New Contributor)
Solution

@Savia 

 

I have a Master's degree in Public Health and have taken epidemiology in graduate school. I think I an more qualified to do this sort of analysis than nearly anyone appearing on stage with Clown Trump, except Dr. Fauci. 

 

I asked a mathematical question, not a political one. Who are you to judge what analysis is proper?