I'm trying to build a model that produces the probability of horses winning a race. There are 4 "speedmaps" (i.e. scenarios of how the race might play out) and each scenario has a percentage of how likely it is to happen. There are 3 horses in the race.
So, Speedmap 1 (happens 40% of the time) Horse A wins 70% Horse B wins 25% Horse C wins 5%
Speedmap 2 (happens 30% of the time) Horse A wins 30% Horse B wins 50% Horse C wins 20%
Speedmap 3 (happens 20% of the time) Horse A wins 10% Horse B wins 20% Horse C wins 70%
Speedmap 4 (happens 10% of the time) Horse A wins 80% Horse B wins 10% Horse C wins 10%
I manually worked out that for this race, the probability of each horse winning is: A = 47%, B=30%, C=23%
How do I build a model in excel where I can input any values in and the probability of the horses winning is spat out?
I think you need to give more information. What values are you entering? You can generate a random number between 1 and 10 and assign values of - 10,20,20,30,30,30,40,40,40,40 -. That would tell you which "Speed map" to use. So, I'm guessing, you get 3 friends to each select a horse. Then run the random number generator. Then that will show which horse won?