Question regarding GPOs and Office 365 ProPlus Channels

If our default settings are First Release Deferred Branch, and a user installs Office 365 ProPlus, AND a GPO is in place that force sets that user to Deferred Branch, which of these scenarios is true, when installing from the Office 365 site:

Current Branch: Version 1611

Deferred Branch: Version 1605

First Release Deferred Branch: Version 1609

1. The user downloads the installer, and version 1605 is installed, because of the GPO
2. The user downloads the installer, and version 1609 is installed (because of the tenant settings), but because of the GPO, it downgrades itself to version 1605
3. The user downloads the installer, and version 1609 is installed (because of the tenant settings), and the version will stay in a holding pattern (no upgrades occur), until the current "Deferred Branch" becomes greater than version 1609 and the updates will begin on the normal Deferred Branch schedule.

Our assumption is scenario 3.